“Battery-electric Class 8 trucks always cost less to own than diesel trucks”

The purchase-price gap is real, but it is not the whole bill

A fleet comparing only the invoice can see a large hurdle. ICCT's 2023 Class 8 analysis estimated a 2022 diesel tractor MSRP of $158,000 from public sources and built electric-truck retail prices from component costs, technical specifications, and manufacturer cost multipliers. Its chart placed the modelled 2022 battery-electric retail price at roughly $460,000 after the incentive assumption used in that study. Those are model estimates, not observed dealer transactions, and the report itself says better price data are needed. NACFE likewise found that fleets still needed truck, charger, energy, and installation cost information to make hard-cost TCO decisions. ^{[1] [9]}

TCO can reverse the sticker-price comparison

ICCT's five-year first-owner model combines vehicle purchase and financing, residual value, fuel or charging, maintenance, labor, and insurance. In its California 2022 case, estimated TCO was $2.50 per mile for battery-electric and $2.06 for diesel. For 2030 model-year trucks, the study projected $1.90 per mile for electric and $1.91 for diesel. That near tie is a forecast under the paper's assumptions, not evidence that electric tractors already cost less in every fleet. It uses a 500-mile long-haul design case, models vehicle and energy technology changes over time, and assumes electric charging costs include utility energy, demand and fixed charges, plus infrastructure. ^[1]

The operational side can be favorable. ICCT's current-technology model estimated 13.2 diesel-gallon-equivalent miles per gallon for the electric truck versus 34.6 L/100km for diesel on its long-haul cycle at a 38,000-pound reference payload. It also used lower maintenance for electric trucks. NREL's 2024 levelized-cost framework similarly assigns lower maintenance-and-repair inputs to BEVs, while cautioning that its simplified per-mile method excludes some real-world ownership costs. These are modeled efficiencies and cost assumptions; they do not promise the same savings for every route, shop, or truck age. ^[2]

Forecasts also differ by method and input. DOE's 2023 Electrification Technologies Sector Team Roadmap modeled Class 8 long-haul electric trucks as having higher levelized cost of driving than conventional trucks through 2030, with the electric case potentially competitive by 2040 if that limited cost measure is the only consideration. NREL defines its levelized cost of driving as a simplified comparison built from vehicle and charger capital, fuel, and maintenance; it leaves out costs covered by a fuller fleet TCO. That is why a model result should be read with its duty cycle, cost categories, energy-price assumptions, and year attached. ^[4]

NACFE's 2026 Messy Middle cost report adds a newer Class 8 forecast through 2035, using operational data from its 2025 fleet demonstration but assuming zero incentives. Its base cases keep diesel ahead of BEVs in long-haul through 2028, then show BEVs reaching parity and narrowly winning by 2035; for regional return-to-base use, it projects a 12% BEV TCO advantage by 2035. NACFE emphasizes that the result changes with location, electricity rate, duty cycle, utilization, negotiated vehicle price, and infrastructure strategy. These are model results to compare with local quotes, not observed savings every fleet can expect. ^[10]

A depot's electricity bill has more than a cents-per-kWh rate

Commercial utility bills can charge for energy consumed, the site's peak power demand in dollars per kilowatt per month, and a fixed monthly fee. In the utility examples ICCT assembled for 2022-2023, demand charges ranged from $8.30 per kW-month in its Texas example to $14.08 in its New York example. The study then modelled a 20-megawatt public corridor station with a 10-megawatt coincident peak. Grid connection, transformer and site work were estimated at $10.775 million; charging hardware added about $6.17 million, before annual maintenance and land costs. Amortized over the assumed station life and utilization, these items contributed to a modeled non-energy charging cost of about 8.6 cents per kWh. A depot with fewer vehicles, a different utility upgrade, storage, or a different charge schedule can have a very different cost. ^[1]

The subsidy line must be updated before using the forecast

The 2030 ICCT projection represented the Inflation Reduction Act's commercial clean-vehicle credit with a simplifying assumption: 30% of the incremental electric-vehicle price, capped at $40,000. That is how the study modelled the then-current incentive, not the statute's exact formula. Under section 45W, the credit was the lesser of 30% of the vehicle's tax basis or its incremental cost, capped at $40,000 for a vehicle with GVWR of at least 14,000 pounds. Federal law later ended section 45W for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. A qualifying vehicle acquired by that date may still be placed in service later. California's HVIP separately lists a $120,000 base voucher for eligible Class 8 vehicles; funding, purchaser eligibility, vehicle class, and use determine whether a fleet can receive it. As of October 2026, the old federal-credit projection should not be presented as the price a new buyer can expect. Meanwhile, diesel prices also move: EIA's latest available figure on October 5 was $6.382 per gallon nationally for the week of September 28, 2026. That retail price can change the savings comparison, but it is not a substitute for a fleet's diesel contract or a current electricity tariff. ^{[5] [7] [8]}